Monday, August 25, 2008

Is This Obama’s Waterloo?

It seems the Democratic National Convention starts today, at least that’s what they are saying on Fox this morning. As a general rule I use this week to get some stuff done around the house such as sorting my socks. This year may be different though, it may actually be exciting. Just not for Obama. I believe that this could be a bad week for Obama.

John McCain, in an attempt to raise expectations unreasonably for Obama, has predicted Obama would get a large bump from the convention. In other words he may get a surge in the polls and open a large but temporary lead over McCain. This is something expected, it tends to happen for each candidate after their respective conventions. Further, what McCain was doing was an old political trick. Hillary Clinton did it to Obama during the primaries. Predicting a bump, or a large primary win for your opponent is a win-win scenario for the candidate who makes the prediction. If Obama gets a big bump, McCain can say it was expected and keep from looking like he is the reason he is behind. Better yet, it raises expectations. If Obama does not get a big bump, or no bump at all, it makes him look weak and gives McCain an opening.

This may be a better than usual time to use this trick. I believe there is a good chance Obama will not get a bump. In fact, I believe it is possible the convention could damage Obama, maybe even permanently.

First there is the cast of characters speaking at the convention. Obama could have stuck with his “change” theme and made some bold choices for speakers at he convention. Instead he went with the tried and true far left of the party. We have Oprah who has been mysteriously busy and unable to actively campaign for Obama since the Rev Wright scandal broke. Nancy Pelosi will kick of the convention with her speech tonight, ‘nuff said there. In an attempt to underline his commitment to Israel, Obama has asked renowned anti-Semite Jimmy Carter to speak. Then we have someone that Obama makes look like a conservative, Teddy Kennedy. Harry Reid will be there. Then of course we have the Clinton’s, more on this later. Included in the list are Jesse Jackson Jr (evidently his father couldn’t make it), John Kerry, national leaders of Planned Parenthood and NARAL, and union leaders from the AFL-CIO, SEIU, and the NEA. Of course we will have the “surprise” visits from celebrities such as Susan Sarandon, Alec Baldwin, George Clooney. Maybe we will even be treated to Madonna. She can explain her curious ‘McCain is like Hitler’ theory. Finally we have Al “we’re all going to die” Gore introducing Obama Thursday night.

No word yet if John Edwards will be there and Detroit mayor Kwame Kilpatrick is still waiting to see if the judges in his perjury and assault trials will let him travel.

Looking at the list provided by the DNC, it is hard to see any out of the mainstream liberal speakers at the convention. This is Obama’s idea of “change”. To their credit though, they did pencil in some time Wednesday to honor the troops. This will be sandwiched in between the guests, and the protestors outside, using the four days to bash them. This will certainly help Obama with the military vote.

Then there is the Clinton’s. Obama has practically turned over days two and three to the Bill and Hill show. They will have speeches “supporting” Obama. There will be a great show of unity. Love will be in the air. Right up until they have the roll call vote and Obama is embarrassed by how many people at his convention vote for Hillary. Folks, I think this is going to be ugly and for once, the media is not going to be able to protect him because it is going to be ugly live and in color. Fox is reporting that there is trouble already with the Bill and Hill show before the convention even starts. It appears there is disagreement between Bill and the Obama team as to what he can and cannot say during his speech. It’s fun to sit back and watch democracy and freedom of speech in action.

Finally, we have the nastiness. As a general rule these conventions are quite boring. They’re scripted. They’re kept on message. They typically have a positive tone with the speakers selling the candidate with occasional zingers at he opponent and opposition party. This year though, the Dems have made a point that they are determined that Obama is not going to be “swift boated” by the Republicans. This has become a term that the Dems use whenever they want to accuse the Republicans of telling the truth about them. There are clear signs the Dems plan to run a different convention. I believe this week will be one of the nastiest conventions we have ever seen. Look at the line up. There is barely a civil, statesmen-like person headlining it, Pelosi, Carter, Gore, Hill and Bill, Reid, Kerry. All have been known to be extremely strident and partisan. The vitriol from this group will likely shock the nation. Their hatred for George Bush will be on display. This hatred has carried over to McCain and will at the convention.

Finally, if anyone doesn’t believe this will happen, look no further than Obama’s pick for VP. Joe Biden. This is a man who has one reputation, and one only, that as an attack dog. Forget national security, most of the public doesn’t even know who he is let alone that he is a national security expert (if we were to use the Dem definition of a national security “expert”). He was brought in to be the grown-up for Obama. He will spend his time attacking McCain while Obama continues pretending he is the change candidate. I predict their honeymoon will be over before the convention is. Biden will embarrass Obama at the convention.

Add to this the scene outside the convention with the protesters. Fox has already, at 5:00 am Denver time, shown footage of the protesters. There were almost no words spoken that they could air on television. These people are here to recreate ’68.

I think we will see riots, massive arrests, bloodshed, profanity, and generally embarrassment. This is just at the roll call vote in the Convention Center. I think things could really get ugly out on the streets.

John McCain is going to show why it is better to have your convention second. He will be able to follow up the Dem convention with a more traditional, positive message, unified convention. This will contrast sharply with the disaster in Denver and he will come off as the more presidential of the two. This will be an image that will help McCain immensely and, with voters already having doubts about Obama’s readiness to lead, may cost Obama the election.

This could be fun. The socks just might have to wait to be sorted this year until the new fall schedule of television programming begins.


DD2 aka Debonair Dude said...

More popcorn, please!
This is going to be a week to remember.
Whe anyone DARES to show a lack of respect for Hillary, they better duck, becausr there's going to be flying lamps!

Brooke said...

I think you've called the whole debacle dead-on, Chuck!

"I think we will see riots, massive arrests, bloodshed, profanity, and generally embarrassment. This is just at the roll call vote in the Convention Center. I think things could really get ugly out on the streets."

Bwaahaahaaaaa! ABSOLUTELY!!!

nanc said...

did you hear malkin's funny the other morning?

she started off naming all these celebrities and ended with "and mumia will be calling from prison to show his support." (paraphrased)

i thought i'd hurl!

Nikki said...

This is going to be a loooong week. I have a feeling these protests are going to get worse before they get better. There is one protesting group called unity my ass! comes the dog and pony show! :)N

cube said...

The usual suspects... they don't know how to behave. I predict fireworks too.

Chuck said...

dd2, nikki, and cube, Hillary's claiming unity but her actions just don't seem to match her words

thanks brooke

nanc, it's hard to know which will be a bigger freak show, the Dims or the celebs.

MK said...

"Better yet, it raises expectations. If Obama does not get a big bump, or no bump at all, it makes him look weak and gives McCain an opening."

The old dog has his tricks ey, he'll need every one of them.

"The vitriol from this group will likely shock the nation."

I hope it shocks them into reality.

"He will spend his time attacking McCain...."

And i hope McCain keeps playing that youtube clip showing Biden praising him.

"....may cost Obama the election."

I like the sound of that.

DD2 aka Debonair Dude said...

"Hillary's claiming unity but her actions just don't seem to match her words"

LOL, when did they ever?