All emphasis mine
First Look At Massachusetts Election Night Poll Data
· 78% of Brown voters Strongly Oppose the health care legislation before Congress.
· 52% of Coakley supporters Strongly Favor the health care plan. Another 41% Somewhat Favor the legislation.
· 61% of Brown voters say deficit reduction is more important than health care reform.
· 46% of Coakley voters say health care legislation more important than deficit reduction.
· 86% of Coakley voters say it’s better to pass the bill before Congress rather than nothing at all.
· 88% of Brown voters say it’s better to pass nothing at all.
•Brown leads among middle-income voters ($40,000 to $100,000).
•Coakley leads among those at upper and lower end of income range.
•Brown leads by 13% among political moderates.
•Among those who decided how they would vote in the past few days, Coakley has a slight edge, 47% to 41%.
•Coakley also has a big advantage among those who made up their mind more than a month ago.
•Seventy-six percent (76%) of voters for Brown said they were voting for him rather than against Coakley.
•Sixty-six percent (66%) of Coakley voters said they were voting for her rather than against Brown.
•22% of Democrats voted for Brown. That is generally consistent with pre-election polling.
Look at the 22% of Democrats voting for Brown. Voters do not vote outside of their party because their candidate ran a bad campaign, they just swallow their dislike and vote for them. They vote outside of their party for only one reason, they don't like what they are seeing and/or hearing. I don't think this is because of bad campaigning.
Look at the number of Brown voters that voted for him instead of against Coakley then look at her numbers for the same (76% and 66% respectively). Again this is a message gap. He had more voters that were voting for what he stood for than she did. It's no small coincidence, in my opinion, that she was campaigning on the national democratic platform.
Even though Brown ran on a fairly conservative message, especially for Massachusetts, he had a 13% edge among moderates.
A large number of Brown voters were concerned about the deficit and against health care, two big issues right now with a majority of voters across the country.
One could look at these and say that it all adds up to Brown running a better campaign and there is some truth to this. Keep in mind though that Coakley won with a comfortable margin in the primary, has been elected previously as Attorney General, and appeared fairly popular in this capacity. People knew her before the campaign, people did not know Brown. She did not need to run a spectacular campaign to win.
I think her bigger sin is one that Obama and the rest of the Democratic politicians in the country are guilty of, arrogance. She did not run a bad campaign as much as she was arrogant. She truly believed that she knew what was best for the voters and they would just understand this if they would only pay attention to her. She did not need to go out and meet people, she did not need to stand outside the ballpark and shake hands, she certainly did not need a pick-up truck. All she needed was for the people to just fall in line behind her because she knew the way.
This is the sin that will doom the Dems this fall because if you are listening to them at all, they still don't get why we aren't understanding what they are trying to do for us. A lot of them have decided they just need to explain it better to us knuckle draggers and things will be fine.