Thursday, January 21, 2010

Do Dems Have Something To Worry About?

There is obviously many red flags in the Massachusetts Senate race just won by Scott Brown. Look closer at some of these numbers though.

All emphasis mine

First Look At Massachusetts Election Night Poll Data

· 78% of Brown voters Strongly Oppose the health care legislation before Congress.

· 52% of Coakley supporters Strongly Favor the health care plan. Another 41% Somewhat Favor the legislation.

· 61% of Brown voters say deficit reduction is more important than health care reform.

· 46% of Coakley voters say health care legislation more important than deficit reduction.

· 86% of Coakley voters say it’s better to pass the bill before Congress rather than nothing at all.

· 88% of Brown voters say it’s better to pass nothing at all.

Results include:

•Brown leads among middle-income voters ($40,000 to $100,000).

•Coakley leads among those at upper and lower end of income range.

•Brown leads by 13% among political moderates.

•Among those who decided how they would vote in the past few days, Coakley has a slight edge, 47% to 41%.

•Coakley also has a big advantage among those who made up their mind more than a month ago.

•Seventy-six percent (76%) of voters for Brown said they were voting for him rather than against Coakley.

•Sixty-six percent (66%) of Coakley voters said they were voting for her rather than against Brown.

•22% of Democrats voted for Brown. That is generally consistent with pre-election polling.

Source

Democrats have desperately tried to convince us that Coakley lost because she ran a bad campaign. She did run a bad campaign but this is not why she lost.

Look at the 22% of Democrats voting for Brown. Voters do not vote outside of their party because their candidate ran a bad campaign, they just swallow their dislike and vote for them. They vote outside of their party for only one reason, they don't like what they are seeing and/or hearing. I don't think this is because of bad campaigning.

Look at the number of Brown voters that voted for him instead of against Coakley then look at her numbers for the same (76% and 66% respectively). Again this is a message gap. He had more voters that were voting for what he stood for than she did. It's no small coincidence, in my opinion, that she was campaigning on the national democratic platform.

Even though Brown ran on a fairly conservative message, especially for Massachusetts, he had a 13% edge among moderates.

A large number of Brown voters were concerned about the deficit and against health care, two big issues right now with a majority of voters across the country.

One could look at these and say that it all adds up to Brown running a better campaign and there is some truth to this. Keep in mind though that Coakley won with a comfortable margin in the primary, has been elected previously as Attorney General, and appeared fairly popular in this capacity. People knew her before the campaign, people did not know Brown. She did not need to run a spectacular campaign to win.

I think her bigger sin is one that Obama and the rest of the Democratic politicians in the country are guilty of, arrogance. She did not run a bad campaign as much as she was arrogant. She truly believed that she knew what was best for the voters and they would just understand this if they would only pay attention to her. She did not need to go out and meet people, she did not need to stand outside the ballpark and shake hands, she certainly did not need a pick-up truck. All she needed was for the people to just fall in line behind her because she knew the way.

This is the sin that will doom the Dems this fall because if you are listening to them at all, they still don't get why we aren't understanding what they are trying to do for us. A lot of them have decided they just need to explain it better to us knuckle draggers and things will be fine.

7 comments:

Brooke said...

Excellent analysis, Chuck.

I do find it amazing that the Dems are in such denial, addressing everything but the real reason they lost.

Miss T.C. Shore said...

Elections are funny. The people who decide the winners seldom are the ones paying attention to what's actually going on in Washington.

It's important for conservatives to keep hammering on the message of lower deficits and other conservative issues that resonate with the electorate. One year ago, this couldn't have been predicted. Heck, 4 months ago, this couldn't have been predicted.

Obama is right about one thing. There is a lot of anger and frustration out there. Republicans have to remind voters WHY they are angry and frustrated.

MK said...

So what if she ran a bad campaign, either way a loss is still a loss. If the lefties want to think it was just the candidate and not their ideology, that obama turning up for what used to be a leftie seat in a leftie state did nothing to save the seat doesn't mean trouble for them, the go right ahead morons.

Best make more space under that bus croakley won't be the last one.

Something i noticed about you Americans, you were fooled by the hopey-changey bullshit like the rest of us, but you all figured it out pretty fast and kicked back even faster.

Gramma 2 Many said...

Amazing how "stupid" we are isn't it?

Chuck said...

Brooke, thanks, I have my moments of clarity ;) The Dems will ride that denial right out of a job

TC, dead on. The GOP needs to keep it up

MK, we're dumb but we do get it eventually

Gramma, the first step is admitting you have a problem

cube said...

I think the libs know what this means for them, but they are loathe to admit it. They will redouble their efforts and so should we. No resting allowed because these libs are sneaky and they have most of the media in their pocket.

Chuck said...

Cube, the right definitely cannot take the year off. The one fear is that they start thinking they have the elction in the bag