Tuesday, February 23, 2010

Is This A Good Idea Politically?

Obama and his minions are on a promotional tour claiming success from the stimulus package. He is claiming he has effectively turned around the economy and "saved" an indeterminate number of jobs (no one in the administration can seem to agree on how many, making the claim even more dubious).

Ignoring for now the ridiculousness of their claims, it this a good idea politically?

Up until now his saving grace has been to blame everything on Bush. While this has mostly been a patently indefensible position, he has been able to get the fringe media to buy into it and support his stance.

What happens now though if the economy tanks again? There are many economists that think the worst is not over yet and there is plenty of evidence that we may not be out of the woods.

Unemployment is not improving significantly and is even having months in which it worsens. Further there is a strong indication that while the unemployment rate has dipped, it is because a large part of the unemployed have stopped looking for work, which is not reflected in the official unemployment rate.

A significant proportion of the jobs "created or saved" have been temporary, government funded or actual government jobs. With decreased tax revenues to the federal government and states these jobs are not sustainable and will be lost once the current funding is exhausted, causing these people to lose their jobs.

There has been a recent report that some states have a combined $1 trillion shortfall of funding for it's retirement plans. This is money that is not going to be able to be recovered with decreased tax revenues, cutbacks in state employment decreasing the number of employees contributing to the funds, and a depressed investment market.

We have a significant number of states who have become dependent on the stimulus money for their state budgets, money that will be exhausted and will not likely be replenished. This will cause a cutback in services at the state level which translates into layoffs.

Finally, all of these factors combine for a second assault on the economy in the multiplier effect. State employees are often fairly well paid. Their salary contributes to the economy by them spending money and thus creating jobs. Same for workers in the auto industry, which will have a hard time hiring more and may even face lay offs if employment does not rebound. One well paid employee supports something like 2 other employees through their spending (I'm sorry, I've forgotten the actual multiplier).

So back to the original question, is this a good idea politically? I think Obama has blown his cover. He is now taking ownership of the economy. If he has been saying the downturn was Bush's fault and he has now fixed things, isn't he now responsible for what happens next? I realize the administration will continue to blame Bush right up until the 2012 election and there will be even some in the fringe media who will go along. The question is, will the public buy it?

What do you think?

5 comments:

Brooke said...

Obama will never own his mistakes. He'll simply point back to Bush and say something along the lines of, "Well, Bush just screwed it up so badly that what I did didn't work."

And the leftists out there will buy it. Mark. My. Words.

Anonymous said...

Chuck, did you see the new US Missile Defense Logo posted by AOW today???
A combination of the Obozo Logo and a
"Crescent"!!! When they aren't lying through their teeth about how great they are, they are give aid to and emboldening our enemies!

Missile Defense Agency Changes Logo to Obama~Islamic Crescent Hybrid!

HAM

Anonymous said...

Miss me yet?

George

Anonymous said...

Is any politician ever responsible … for anything that happens on their watch? Let us consider the damage that Jamie Gorelick did to this country, and Madeline Albrecht, and Christopher Warren. Has anyone ever held them responsible? No … because you see, our laws protect these people, so long as they are acting in an official capacity. So Timmy can absolutely ruin our economy, and terrorists can rent Toyotas from Mexico and drive over here en masse … and no one held to account; not Obama, nor anyone in his administration. And I believe the Supreme Court will uphold this idea … because what I read on another blog this morning is true: The American people elected a Chicago gangster. Now let them suffer the consequences for that ominous decision.

Pshaw

Mustang out

Chuck said...

Brooke, I did think about this but it may not matter what he says

HAM, I did. Welcome to the United America Emirates

George, if you only knew how much ;)

Mustang,

“Every nation has the government it deserves.”

Joseph de Maistre