Monday, November 1, 2010

What Do You Think About This?

There really isn't much else to talk about today other than tomorrow's elections. So that is this week's question - what will happen tomorrow?

Leave your predictions. Go on the record and we will see just how smart we all are. I will reveal mine on Wednesday after everybody else has put theirs in.

Just joking, here we go:

The House

I think Nancy Pelosi is toast. She will keep her office but it is much smaller in January. I'm thinking a broom closet. Bonus - it will give her a place to park her broom.

There are a lot of seats for the Democrats to defend that have traditionally been right-leaning and this is a bad year for them. I think the GOP already has the House, it's just a matter of how strongly.

Republicans gain 50+ seats.

The Senate

Tougher to call. I worry about voting "irregularities" in Nevada and Pennsylvania, two close races that are leaning slightly Republican. I also worry about Murkowski blowing it for us in Alaska and giving the seat to the Democrats. On the flip side, I don't think we can rule out surprises in California and Washington and to a far lesser extent Connecticut and Delaware.

I still think though that recapturing the Senate is not there for us this year. It could be considerably closer than I think and will largely depend on who is right about which party has the momentum. Too many things have to go right for the GOP to retake the Senate though.

I do think that if I am wrong here and the GOP retakes the Senate then my House projection is way off and the GOP gains in the neighborhood of 70+.

Republicans gain 7 seats.

State elections

I have not been following state elections as closely, being a conservative I work for a living. I do think this is a big year for the GOP. While I have not been able to track this as much, it does not mean I do not see it as important. This is a big year for statewide elections. We not only do re-districting this year but also state governments have been passing more liberal laws in recent years.

While I am not a fan of gerrymandering, it is going to happen. I would rather see the right control it than the left. This year's re-districting can determine the political map for the next decade or more.

Further, retaking state governments will slow the rush to socialism we have been seeing for the last 2 years.

Finally, controlling statewide governments has significant influence on Presidential races. Historically a party that controls a state's government gets an edge on the Presidential campaign in the state.

Republicans gain 10-12 Governorships and the same number for legislative control

What are your thoughts?


Mustang said...

We have the luxury of sitting back and criticizing politicians for a long list of transgressions, but this is only because we are not politicians. No one is guiltier of this than I am. In fairness, I think few of us realize the astounding level of pressure exerted on politicians from the power wagons back home. Leslie put up a couple film clips of the classic movie, Mr. Smith Goes to Washington. The film reminds us that political corruption has not just recently manifested itself in the nation’s capital. It has been with us for a long time —and maybe even from the beginning. Back home politics is as corrupt as the sleaze inside the beltway. This is why I think the Tea Party Organizations (TPO) is a good thing for America. I think they’ll be keeping a close eye on the politicians we elect, and the bubbas back home, and they’ll keep voters informed. I can’t imagine any politician is happy to hear this, but that’s what I think.

I don’t know how to make a prediction, Chuck. I have no doubt that citizens back home will reelect scum like Pelosi and Waters; I don’t know why. We do live in interesting times.

PS. I don't believe any of the stuff Sunset says about you.

Ticker said...

GOP takes the House by a landslide.
Dems maintain Senate by one or two seats.
Governors: GOP wins big especially in States that went for Obama in 08 that normally were GOP states.

Sam Huntington said...

I agree with Ticker; it will be a massive repudiation of Obama. The next question should be, "Will the GOP be able to retain the House in 2012?" I think Obama will do all he can to defeat conservative ideology.

Chuck said...

Mustang, when I was young I thought I would like to go into politics. As I got older I lost too much hair and gained too much self-respect.

As far as LA, I've always wondered...

Ticker, that's kind of where I'm at. I think I may have underestimated the Senate

Sam, actually I am thinking of doing a blog later looking ahead to 2012. The Senate looks real good for us.

DaBlade said...

This will be a referendum on obamadinejad and the failed marxist policies of the democrat party. I can't wait.

Chuck said...

Hey DaBlade, how's it going?

It is going to be an interesting day

DaBlade said...

Hey Chuck, did you miss me? I returned to the Flint area 2 weeks ago. I left Wisconsin and the newspaper biz behind for good this time and will be a Michigander from here on out. Hope to be back on my feet soon. Today should help in that endeavor.

Ticker said...

Chuck it depends on who is Speaker with the Republican majority. If it's Bohner then we will see too much compromise and the voters will be ticked at the GOP once again for not following through. If that happens then look for four more years of the "idiot in chief" in the "WH. That will end the republican party as a major power and it will take several more years before the Tea Party or what ever evolves out of it to become viable.
By that time it probably won't matter since we will have become a third rate banana republic with a little half breed as a dictator.

Chuck said...

DaBlade, you just wanted to come back now that we're going to have a Republican Governor ;)

Welcome back, hope all goes well.

Ticker, I worry about the Speaker too. I am just unsure of Boehner. I would rather see one of the young energized members get it

Ticker said...

"Boner" has already said he will pull back on his stand on financial reform and on OBAMANOCARE. If the Republicans make him Speaker the entire bunch needs to be fired, impeached immediately. Of course who will impeach the guilty? 2012 will be too late.