Tuesday, June 21, 2011

This Can't Be Good For Obama

African-American unemployment at 16 percent

CBS News correspondent Michelle Miller reports that, historically, the unemployment rate for African Americans has always been higher than the national average. However, now it's at Depression-era levels. The most recent figures show African American joblessness at 16.2 percent. For black males, it's at 17.5 percent; And for black teens, it's nearly 41 percent.

Source

It may not be a deal breaker for Obama but it would be hard to argue that the black vote is not very important to his re-election chances.

Further, I don't think the black vote will run in droves to the GOP.

What do you think will happen though if these numbers stay as they are now?

George Bush, not wildly popular among black voters, collected about 10 - 11% of their vote in 2000 and 2004.

Obama took 96% of the black vote in 2008.

The black vote works out to be about 12% of the vote in a Presidential election.

If the next GOP candidate took back 5% points of the vote Bush got this would be about a half a percent of the electorate or roughly 500,000 votes.

Realize this is not a loss of 500,000 votes - it's a million vote swing, a 500,000 vote loss for Obama and a corresponding 500,000 vote gain for the GOP candidate.

Think that will matter in what is likely going to be a close election?

The more likely scenario is that a significant portion of the black vote could stay home. Not traditionally a reliable vote, their peak was in 2008 when almost 13% or 13 million blacks voted. Of these 13 million, 96% were for Obama.

If 10% of these voters are unhappy and stay home it's a loss of in the neighborhood of one and a quarter million votes for Obama.

Again, close election.

Add to this the following

-Many conservatives stayed home in 2008 to "protest" John McCain (don't even get me started on this). These people have come to their senses after the wild success of their plan in 2008 and will actually vote this time.

-Obama is losing the independent vote, an important part of his victory in 2008

-Hispanics on the left are not happy with Obama over his lack of immigration "reform". They are not any happier with the GOP but many of them will stay home nonetheless

-White liberals are unhappy because (pick one) we do not have abortion shops on every corner fully funded by the government, we are not the communist utopia he promised, people are still expected to work for what they want, we have not destroyed our national energy apparatus to finally get that damned polar bear off of that ice floe we keep seeing the picture of, we have not fully embraced sharia law, wealthy people still have money (with the obvious exemption for George Soros), Fox News is still on the air spreading the truth their lies, we still have a standing military, the country still exists.

I'm telling you folks, this election is not near over yet.

6 comments:

Mustang said...

The left is not happy with Obama precisely because he has not done enough to destroy what remains of American tradition. The independents pretend as if they had no role in Obama’s election, as do the idiots on the far right who stayed home because Romney is a Mormon or because McCain is a RINO. I wish I could say blacks will be so disgusted with Obama that they’ll stay home in 2012, but I think you overlook the racial dynamic: young black people are using the economic situation as an excuse to commit robbery and theft, and if they blame anyone, it will be the Republican House. Remember, these are exactly the audience Nancy Pelosi is speaking to whenever she steps to the microphone to issue us another rendition of utter nonsense. I predict many blacks will stay home, but those who do vote will overwhelmingly vote for Barack “God damn America” Obama.

Z said...

I don't think this will bring black voters to the Republicans...Obama'll be continuing to (subtly enough so the Rightwing media can't harp too much on him and strong enough that the media takes the ball and runs with it) blame Bush up till the 2012 national election.
Most people WILL believe that NOBODY, not even the Messiah Obama, could have straightened out the country after the "wreck Bush left it in...yadda yadda yadda..and the beat goes on"

Whatever votes Republicans DO win from Blacks will be overcome by the voter fraud I believe the Left will continue next year as they did the primaries in 2008.

I did a post some months back about the hugely disproportionate amount of blacks in TV commercials compared to their percentage in the population.......I said it was a good thing because ad companies reach for the spenders and why would they jeopardize sales to appease any particular community? So this showed our black community was strengthening (they're in everything from food ads to Merrill Lynch); I thought that was a very hopeful thing! But this happened right after Obama was elected so I did suspect a little SOros possible involvement$$ but...probably not much. And, really..why would he?
The commercials continue though the buying power must be going down among Black Americans if they're so highly unemployed. Odd.

Mustang's right; it's the young who'll vote in huge numbers for Obama in 2012; they'll never ever vote for self-reliance, smaller govt., etc...and they will not stay home.

and yes, Chuck; it does seem like I'm fixated on nudity this week!! HAA!

Chuck said...

Mustang, I doubt there will be a rush to the GOP but I think enthusiasm ha gone down quite a bit. Realize, they have more to be disappointed about than most - they expected a new day in America for them and it has not dawned.

Z, I still believe we could see a diminished black vote but good point on the potential for fraud.

I imagine the left is scrambling after ACORN has been cracked.

Alligator said...

Enthusiasm for Obama has gone down but blacks will remain solidly in his camp. The Hispanic vote will only depart from the DNP only in minor numbers. Obama has 40% of the vote he can count on no matter what he does. Again it comes down to the 20% of independents. Some of those will waffle and vacillate until the moment they step in the voting booth. There are just so many dynamics in play now compared to earlier elections. I don't think these are "normal" political times as we've known them in the past.

Chuck said...

Alligator, my real point here is that this is I think this is going to be a close election 2 - 3 points. A few blacks and Hispanics staying home could sway the election.

Always On Watch said...

Blacks and Hispanics are becoming increasingly unhappy with Obama. They thought the was "The One" and would somehow provide their needs and desires. Instead, our economy has tanked even further since BHO took office.

I predict that many black and Hispanic voters will sit out the election in 2012. Of course, staying home is, in effect, casting a ballot for the opposing party.