Saturday, July 23, 2011

More This Can't Be Good For Obama

Poll: Weakened Obama would lose vote today

This article was about a poll done by a Democratic polling firm. It is not a poll by Fox News or any other supposed right leaning polling firm. With that in mind, let's see the Dims explain this one away.

Anyways, to the point. This is the statistic from the article that is the most damaging for The One:

For the first time in a year, Mr. Obama does not lead former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in Public Policy Polling's monthly national poll on the 2012 presidential race. They are tied at 45 percent, and Mr. Obama is losing among independent voters by a margin of 49 percent to 44 percent.

Worse for Mr. Obama, PPP said, the "vast majority" of undecideds disapprove of the president's performance. The survey of registered voters was conducted July 15-17.

We can talk all we want about numbers. How strong his support is among blacks, women, independents, etc. But when a "vast majority" of undecideds disapprove of his job performance, he has a mountain to climb.

Undecideds decide elections. When you start out with most of them having a negative opinion of a candidate, it's not good.

Further, look at the data set they used - registered voters.

Using registered voters is an old trick of the Democratic Party and other left leaning polling organizations to show their chosen candidate to be stronger than what they may really be. When registered voters are polled the data tends to be biased towards Democrats because the data set includes voters who are registered but do not vote. Democratic voters have a higher representation in this group because they tend to be less reliable voters.

Often the more reliable data set is that of "likely voters". These are the ones who really matter. It is irrelevant what someone who does not vote thinks about an election, they have no bearing on the final result.

The point is, this poll could potentially be worse news for Obama than what the numbers show. And these numbers aren't good.

Obviously one could say "but Chuck, the election is more than a year away". They would be right but soon it will 9 months, and then 6 months, and then...

I believe that Presidents reach a point in which voters make a decision about them and once this point is reached, there is no coming back. Bush's point came when the photo of him looking at the devastation of Hurricane Katrina from the window of Air Force One was plastered all over the media. I think this perception of him being uncaring was unfair, if he would have landed he would have been equally attacked by the media for doing so for a photo-op. The bottom line is Hurricane Katrina represents one of the biggest hit jobs by the media in modern times. Fair or not though, his reputation never recovered.

I don't think Obama's tipping point has been as pronounced but I think his Teflon armor began wearing off in the Gulf oil spill. His inaction, his criticism (from the golf course) of the BP CEO for going to a boat race, the arrogance and lack of concern for the residents of the effected states left a bad taste in the mouths of the public and his polling numbers have never really covered from it.

Finally, the GOP cannot feel too comfortable yet.

There are still voters who do not approve of Obama that are undecided. These people could still hold their nose and vote for him. It will be of small comfort while suffering under four more years of Obama to know that some of his voters did not actually like him.

Obviously a large part of this is because there is not a clear front runner for the GOP and the candidates with the most press so far are uninspiring. The reality is though that this could be an election that is the GOP's to lose.

We just need to put up a viable candidate (and running mate) and telecast a strong, consistent message.

Do this and this one could be in the bag.

8 comments:

MK said...

Something to note as well is that these bad numbers for zero are after much of the media has been batting for him, selling him and pushing his propaganda. The same cannot be said for his opponents.

You have to be a real loser when even the msm cannot get you over the line.

Brooke said...

I don't think the numbers will matter. Enough idiot 'he's our first black president' voters will show up to bolster Obama... And if not, there are always plenty of dead people, football teams and dogs to vote Democrat.

Chuck said...

MK, also keep in mind these numbers are before any real campaign against him. I don't think we will have a repeat of 2008 in which McCain did not want to attack him. He wouldn't allow his staff to address the issue with Rev Wright.

Brooke, I can't lie - I do worry about fraud although they were dealt a blow with the damage done to ACORN

Alligator said...

November 20, 1944. Germany was on the ropes. Soviet forces had pushed into East Prussia. Allied forces had breached the Siegfried Line and were probing into Germany. The Allies owned the air. The Germans were using horses and wagons in greater numbers than at the beginning of the war due to fuel shortages. Predictions were rampant that Germany would completely collapse by Christmas.

Only George Patton predicted a violent counteroffensive through Belgium, and advised SHAEF to be prepared. "Counteroffensive? With what? There's nothing of strategic value in Belgium" was the standard reply. Patton was basically ordered to keep Third Army on the Saar. Then on December 18, thirty rebuilt German divisions which were counted as "destroyed" broke through American lines in the Ardennes Forest of Belgium.

Save for the 101st Airborne holding out at Bastogne, buying Patton time to disengage Third Army on the Saar and drive 250 miles north, the Germans would have crocked the western front wide open. Even if they had won the Battle of the Bulge, they would have still lost the war, but think how much longer the ear would have gone on and how many more people would have died in the protracted campaign.

Moral: Obama and the Dems may appear to be on the ropes, but you do not count a victory until the day after election. Even then, we will still have to root out and "mop up" all the career bureaucrats and agencies and appointees who behind the scenes will still quietly be carrying on Obama's vision whether he is in office or not. Its bigger than Obama -- it is a mindset that has infiltrated the legislative, executive and judicial on many levels.

Z said...

I'm very worried about voter fraud. It got virtually ignored in 2008, especially in the Dem primaries.

THe Republicans need an excellent candidate and, most importantly, a good Public Relations team. So far, no good.

Chuck said...

Alligator, your forgetting the lawsuits and demonstrations/riots if Obama loses.

BTW, my grandfather was in the 101st in WWII and later infantry under Patton.

Z, agreed. One thing we have going for us is the damage done to ACORN. this will cut fraud a bit, maybe a lot.

cube said...

How any intelligent human being can, at this point, be undecided about Obama scares me.

Alligator said...

Alligator, your forgetting the lawsuits and demonstrations/riots if Obama loses.

Well I didn't forget as much as failed to mention it. I do believe both things will happen if Obama loses the election.

Maybe he could get unseated in the primary by Hilary? I doubt it. The Dems will stick with the incumbent no matter how bad.