A new poll among Iowa caucus voters shows Michelle Bachmann leading in the state and beating Romney by 4 points.
On top of possibly winning Iowa, I think she plays well in the next few races. New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina, and Florida are next followed by Super Tuesday in which 14 states hold primaries (1, Montana, is a caucus).
I see her Tea Party message doing well South Carolina, Nevada, and Florida. New Hampshire may be a bit more of a toss-up due to Romney's regional advantage and a left of center tilt in the state.
As far as the Super Tuesday states (Alabama, Arkansas, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, Missouri, Montana Republican caucuses, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Utah), I see her doing well Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Missouri, Montana, Oklahoma, and Tennessee. Possibly being competitive in California, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, New Jersey, and New York. Utah likely belongs to Romney.
So, the point is, she could come out of Super Tuesday with a significant amount of momentum.
What do you think about this?
What are your thoughts on the early primaries above? Agree or disagree with my prognostication?
Does Rick Perry entering the race, if he does, change the calculus? How?
Most importantly, would Bachmann winning the nomination be a good thing? Is she a viable candidate? Is she Presidential? Most importantly, can she beat Obama?
What are your thoughts?