Tuesday, July 12, 2011

What Do You Think About This?

This is a day late due to life. I have simply been too busy lately between working a lot of overtime and my son's graduation/open house to have a lot of time left over for blogging.

A new poll among Iowa caucus voters shows Michelle Bachmann leading in the state and beating Romney by 4 points.

On top of possibly winning Iowa, I think she plays well in the next few races. New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina, and Florida are next followed by Super Tuesday in which 14 states hold primaries (1, Montana, is a caucus).

I see her Tea Party message doing well South Carolina, Nevada, and Florida. New Hampshire may be a bit more of a toss-up due to Romney's regional advantage and a left of center tilt in the state.

As far as the Super Tuesday states (Alabama, Arkansas, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, Missouri, Montana Republican caucuses, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Utah), I see her doing well Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Missouri, Montana, Oklahoma, and Tennessee. Possibly being competitive in California, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, New Jersey, and New York. Utah likely belongs to Romney.

So, the point is, she could come out of Super Tuesday with a significant amount of momentum.

What do you think about this?

What are your thoughts on the early primaries above? Agree or disagree with my prognostication?

Does Rick Perry entering the race, if he does, change the calculus? How?

Most importantly, would Bachmann winning the nomination be a good thing? Is she a viable candidate? Is she Presidential? Most importantly, can she beat Obama?

What are your thoughts?

8 comments:

LASunsett said...

//Does Rick Perry entering the race, if he does, change the calculus?//

Yes.

//How?//

It changes from a field of people who can adequately describe the problems we all face, to one where there is a dialogue of actual solutions. He has experience running a large state. He knows enough about politics to play the game and his market based solutions have been largely successful in Texas.

He is also a proponent of states' rights.

For the duration of my lifetime and even before, the federal government has been swallowing up responsibilities that once belonged to he states, if not wholly, by subsidies to control states' decisions concerning laws and policies. There is nothing like a tax, tax break, or in the cases of states a grant or withholding of a grant to coerce people and states into complying with the wishes of the federal govt. Even Ronald Reagan was guilty of this in some things.

I am not against a federal government. I believe there are some things it must be involved in. It must defend borders (it doesn't), deliver the mail (although with the internet and Fed Ex, that may not be so important these days), and resolve disputes between the states. We need no Dept of Education, Energy, or HHS. And others need trimming down greatly with added restrictions to their powers.

Perry needs to enter soon. IMHO, he is the only one with the stones to get this done.

cube said...

First of all, I will vote for ANYONE running against Obama. That said, I want a candidate who enough people will vote for so that he/she will beat Obama.

I'm not sure who that candidate is yet. Too soon to tell.

Chuck said...

LA, I tend to agree. I like Bachmann, and would vote for her in a heart beat against Obama, but she is not my first choice for the nomination. I like what I have seen of Perry.

Cube, agreed

Phill Senters said...

I agree with everything here so far, but the it is rather early to make any firm decisions except for the most important one-Find a candidate who can and will unseat Obama. So far Bachmann and Perry are top of that list for me.

Brooke said...

It is difficult for me to get too invested in the GOP primaries. As a citizen of Ohio, the candidate is already usually decided by the time our primary rolls around, so I usually end up signing one of the fascist 'party loyalty cards' and vote for the Democrat I think will be the least harmful.

Chuck said...

Phil, agreed although I am much more sold on Perry right now.

Brooke, you have a stronger stomach than I do.

Z said...

Well, Chuck, let's put it this way: I just responded to your comment about my amazing news from California (thanks for reading that and commenting, I think it's very good news for the country) and you said that, based on that and other things, we could have the 2012 tied up...and I responded that I thought we could win 2012 but will probably lose spectacularly depending on who we nominate and, if we nominated Bachmann, we'll lose for sure.

Man, part of me says WE HAVE TO NOMINATE A TRUE CONSERVATIVE WHO WON'T DREAM OF BEING A RINO..........that would be a Bachmann, a (God forbid) Palin...I can't think of a man running who's nearly that staunch a conservative....

OR then I think WE HAVE TO GO MORE CENTRIST, THOUGH I DETEST THAT, AND THAT'S THE ONLY WAY WE'LL WIN!

I'm really torn. I have seen some things Bachmann's said about, for example, homosexuality, and they're pretty tough; almost unthinkingly critical and demeaning. She's a woman but she comes off more hard nosed than any of the men.

Blogger Heidianne can't stand Perry and says he's a liberal conservative...a REAL RINO. I saw him on TV recently and liked what he said and have hopes for him, though I think he's very slick.
Then there's Pawlenty who needs to grow a spine because I like a lot of what he says but he seems wimpy.......he wimped out on Romney at the debate and got criticized so what's he doing now?...he seems to be overcompensating by slamming Bachmann in very unsportsmanlike ways; really surprising.
Well..I'm writing a post here instead of a comment, sorry but this stuff gets me hopped up.

I don't think we WILL win in 2012. And, trust me, NOBODY hopes I'm REAL WRONG more than I DO...having said that, I see how close polls are between Obama and Republicans and......I could be wrong. Please, God, let me be wrong about this.

I'm with Cube, by the way, I'd vote for almost ANYBODY over Obama. Maybe not SOros :-)

MK said...

I read a long article about her just the other day and she seems to be a real conservative. The left despise her, though not as much as they hate Palin.

The left hating her is a big plus for me, it's good indication of a true conservative.