Thursday, August 25, 2011

Do We Have A Problem Here?

I have insisted all along that this next Presidential election is the GOP's to lose.

Unemployment is going to remain high and other numbers such as consumer confidence are at either historic or decades-old lows (or highs).

Blacks, Hispanics, and other liberals are getting restless.

The right largely despises Obama so there will be little cross-over.

The independents are running away from Obama in droves.

We have a potentially viable candidate in Rick Perry. Someone who is willing to actually campaign against Obama instead of having aspects of his life off limits like McCain did.

So, what could go wrong?

This man is a nut. He is the GOP's answer to Dennis Kucinich. He thinks he can win.

So, will he run as an independent?

This is not an idle question. Why? Because there are other crazy people in the country. This man has just enough rabid followers that when he has an appearance in a city it is virtually impossible to find tin foil for BBQing in the week building up to it.

Think about this. Has anyone else seen the stories recently on the networks asking why he isn't getting more respect? I've been seeing stories here and there from some MSM networks wondering out loud if he isn't maybe more mainstream than he is being given credit for.

Are they doing this to inflate his potential, and ego, so he will run as an independent and assure Obama a victory?

Or, is he attractive to some on the left?

This brings me to my next point. Would he damage the GOP candidate or would he draw disillusioned voters equally from the right and the left? He is anti-war. He's not really a conservative as much as he's a Libertarian. This political focus has a tendency to draw from the right but also draws from the left. It seems a little unlikely that he would draw equally from right and left but let's look at some recent and past history.

Ronald Reagan was elected with a wide margin because of the "Reagan Democrats". These were left of center Democrats that liked his message of self-reliance and were turned off by the massive failures of Jimmy Carter.

I was convinced Perot would have been more damaging to Clinton and the Democrats. He gave Clinton the election by drawing Republicans from Bush.

People are convinced the Tea Party is a wing of the GOP. There is a substantial number of Democrats in the Tea Party.

So will a populist GOP candidate hold off Paul and draw enough Democrats from Obama to win? Could a candidate like Rick Perry pull a "Reagan" and draw from across the political spectrum while keeping a conservative message?

What are your thoughts? Is he the spoiler? Are his people crazy enough to stick with him at the polls even if it is obvious he will not win? We had conservatives sit out the last election to "protest" McCain. Are they smart enough to learn from that?


cube said...

Ron Paul brings to mind the spoiler Ross Perot during the election of 1992. We got 8 years of Clinton after that and I certainly don't want a second term of Obamanomics.

I want a candidate that will beat Obama. I'm willing to hold his/her feat to the fire AFTER he/she beats Obama.

Alligator said...

Cube got to it first. Trump is still threatening to run as an independent and Paul could as well. Obama will automatically get 40% of the vote. Even the lefties that are screaming and railing at him will pull the lever for him on election day, simply to stop Republicans if for no other reason.

All Obama needs to win is for 10-15% of the "conservative" vote to sit out the election or split over independents. It is the GOP's to lose.

Chuck said...

Cube, I agree

Alligator, I think Trump's 15 minutes are up. Paul has the followers though. The real question is will it be a wash because these were the people that stayed home last time anyways? Yes, we lost but Obama will not get the vote he got last time.

Z said...

maybe this is why the Left's whining that the Right is mostly ignoring Paul...have you heard all that? Jon Stewart did a whole pretty persuasive thing on it, talk shows are discussing it.....showing that Paul's polling is good but the Rightwing isn't even discussing him as a viable candidate.
Maybe they're hoping against hope he WILL be all that we hope he won't be...a spoiler.

If those on the Right sit this one out again, America'll be gone. Good planning by the lefties, isn't it..? Telling Ron Paul followers that their hero's being ignored by the GOP, etc? Provoking bitterness and stubborness? "WE'LL SHOW THEM!"

They did that in 2008 and BROTHER, did they show US, huh? In the meantime, we're losing our country.
"GREAT JOB, Conservatives!" NOT

Chuck said...

Z, that was one of the pints I was making. Trying to build him up. I wonder though, and the libs at your site lent a little credence to this, there may be a cross-over from the left. This whole "protest vote" can work both ways. He may give some Dems upset with Obama, but not enough so they vote for the GOP, someone to vote for.

LASunsett said...

Ron Paul makes good sense up to a point. But any psychiatric clinician will tell you there is a fine line between reality and delusional thinking, sometimes.

Z said...

LA...which part is 'delusional' in your estimation, the fact that he's such an isolationist? I thought it fascinating when columnist jeffrey Llord said on Medved yesterday that it was that kind of isolationism of the thirties in THIS country which got 400,000 Americans killed in WWII because we'd been ignoring the threat and then got pulled in unpreparedly....what do you think?

Chuck, you said "He may give some Dems upset with Obama, but not enough so they vote for the GOP, someone to vote for."

MAYBE, but SO few Dems will do that, in my opinion. I just don't SEE Dems who are going off Obama saying "SO, I'm going to vote me a Republican into office!" I just don't SEE it. I hope I'm wrong.. but they're SO SO much more ideological than we are. But, after having typed that, I suppose there are Dems who'll be hating what Obama's done by Nov 2012, can't BRING themselves to vote REPUBLICAN (after all, that's become to represent EVIL in our mainstream media) and MAYBE think "what the heck...I'll vote for the little pipsqueak who hasn't a chance but will tick the GOP off if he wins!">...MAYBE, but not many.

Chuck! i just HAD to tell you the funniest line I think Coulter has EVER said: Some guy named Goodsbee or something thinks that our economy's so bad due to tsunamis and earthquakes (!?)...she thinks that's so stupid that her comment was "OH, YES, oh, yes...our hearts go out to those who LOST THEIR BALANCE in the earthquake" Gad, is she clever, or WHAT? :-) Just had to tell you!

Chuck said...

LA, I don't completely dismiss him - even Dennis Kucinich gets the day of the week right sometimes. I just think he (Paul) is a loon. Right now the leftist media is trying to hyper-inflate him to get the right to vote him in, or at least roil things up. If he were to win the nomination he would be the laughing stock of the evening news.

Z, there is a huge gap between isolationism and trying to rule the world. A more recent example of ignoring a threat is Bill Clinton. He ignored al Qaeda and Afghanistan and we all know where that got us. Ron Paul takes isolationism too far.

As to Dems, I think most are overestimating Obama's strength among them. His popularity is at something like 76% right now, that is not a good number for a sitting President among his own party. That means a fourth of them are unhappy with him.

Not to argue but I'm not sure Dems are that much more ideological than Republicans. I think those on the far left may be but one could even argue that point. I am a Republican and it is very unlikely I would ever vote for a Democrat. I am very ideological. I am not convinced that is a bad thing. My point has been that they are not likely to vote for the GOP candidate, some may or may not vote for Paul. Mostly, they will stay home. This is Obama's real danger, losing his base.

Phill Senters said...

It seems to me that anyone who runs as an Independent will draw more votes from the right than from the left. That could cause our Obamaquake to last another four years.

MK said...

I think u got it, if the GOP put forward a candidate who will not hold back on Obama the people will vote for him. The mood is not the one when obama was elected, people have had enough of his crap and they won't be browbeaten into voting for Obama over race. They are also not going to swallow lies from the msm either, well I hope.

Always On Watch said...

In my view, Ron Paul is the 2012 Ross Perot, and his presence in the race will give the victory to Obama. **sigh**

Alligator's comment is spot on:

Obama will automatically get 40% of the vote. Even the lefties that are screaming and railing at him will pull the lever for him on election day, simply to stop Republicans if for no other reason.

The GOP is famous for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. **sigh**

cube said...

The only reason Jon Stewart and his lefty friends are building up Ron Paul is because HE IS AN IDIOT and will surely lose to Obama.

Let's just get that out of the way and move on to a candidate who can beat the Won.

I don't want the left picking MY candidate.

Chuck said...

Phil, it is hard to tell right now. A lot depends on the mood of the country

MK, I think if a candidate goes after him they win

AOW, you may be right.


I don't want the left picking MY candidate.

that is the thing isn't it?

Alligator said...

Thank you for the complement AOW. When it comes to Obama's reelection prospects I hope I'm wrong. But in a political war, you don't count your opposition out because of polls. You fight until he is flat out on his back and unable to get up the day after the election. No more hanging chad lawsuits!

The Republican candidate has got to go after Obama's record and hard. They don't have to mean and nasty, just be firm and tell the plain simple truth. Then to balance they have to illustrate THEIR plan and offer hope. The plans need to be simple enough that if you asked an 8th grader what candidate X believes, they could write out three or four substantive bullet points.

Team Obama will be ruthless on whomever the Republican candidate is and the media is going to back them up. A tepid, John McCain nice guy approach is going to lose for sure. Just be truthful, be firm and present real plans that people can comprehend. People are tired of getting snowed under by politicians' BS and double-speak.