Unemployment is going to remain high and other numbers such as consumer confidence are at either historic or decades-old lows (or highs).
Blacks, Hispanics, and other liberals are getting restless.
The right largely despises Obama so there will be little cross-over.
The independents are running away from Obama in droves.
We have a potentially viable candidate in Rick Perry. Someone who is willing to actually campaign against Obama instead of having aspects of his life off limits like McCain did.
So, what could go wrong?
This man is a nut. He is the GOP's answer to Dennis Kucinich. He thinks he can win.
So, will he run as an independent?
This is not an idle question. Why? Because there are other crazy people in the country. This man has just enough rabid followers that when he has an appearance in a city it is virtually impossible to find tin foil for BBQing in the week building up to it.
Think about this. Has anyone else seen the stories recently on the networks asking why he isn't getting more respect? I've been seeing stories here and there from some MSM networks wondering out loud if he isn't maybe more mainstream than he is being given credit for.
Are they doing this to inflate his potential, and ego, so he will run as an independent and assure Obama a victory?
Or, is he attractive to some on the left?
This brings me to my next point. Would he damage the GOP candidate or would he draw disillusioned voters equally from the right and the left? He is anti-war. He's not really a conservative as much as he's a Libertarian. This political focus has a tendency to draw from the right but also draws from the left. It seems a little unlikely that he would draw equally from right and left but let's look at some recent and past history.
Ronald Reagan was elected with a wide margin because of the "Reagan Democrats". These were left of center Democrats that liked his message of self-reliance and were turned off by the massive failures of Jimmy Carter.
I was convinced Perot would have been more damaging to Clinton and the Democrats. He gave Clinton the election by drawing Republicans from Bush.
People are convinced the Tea Party is a wing of the GOP. There is a substantial number of Democrats in the Tea Party.
So will a populist GOP candidate hold off Paul and draw enough Democrats from Obama to win? Could a candidate like Rick Perry pull a "Reagan" and draw from across the political spectrum while keeping a conservative message?
What are your thoughts? Is he the spoiler? Are his people crazy enough to stick with him at the polls even if it is obvious he will not win? We had conservatives sit out the last election to "protest" McCain. Are they smart enough to learn from that?