Friday, December 30, 2011

Yet More This Can't Be Good For Obama

The 2008 Presidential election win for Obama was a culmination of a perfect storm.

The GOP brand was tarnished, some of this was fair, some of it was manufactured by the media.

Obama was viewed by enough people as being charismatic. A sad and pathetic indictment of the American electorate in which we often elect style over substance.

Race had a hand, he garnered a historically high proportion and turnout of the black vote.

He captured states that the Dems usually do not.

Finally, he was able to get a significant segment of the youth vote.

Read the following article.

Have the youth given up on Obama?

The relevant part of this article is that the employment rate of the 16 - 29 year old age group is only 55%. Just over half of the people from 16 - 29 have jobs. Anyone want to guess at what the rate is for minorities? They traditionally have a higher rate than whites so a large portion of these could be Hispanics and blacks. I noticed CNN did not put that in the article.

I have written at least three different posts on warning signs for an Obama re-election.

There are some who think that the next election is in the bag. Through cheating, media interference, and even incompetence on the right, the re-election of Obama is going to happen. I have a tendency to agree with all of the above with the exception that I think Obama faces a very significant hill to climb for re-election.

The problems keep mounting. More and more it seems as if the groups that put Obama over the top in 2008 are falling away a little at a time.

Remember, the GOP doesn't need Obama to lose all of the black vote, or Hispanics, young, women, moderate Democrats, etc. A few here and a few there will add up.

A swing of 2 - 3 percent of the electorate could be huge. It could mean the loss of key states like Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan. Just as importantly, the traditional GOP states Obama took in 2008 will swing back to the GOP.

I am thinking the 2008 election is the GOP's to lose, what are your thoughts?

21 comments:

sue hanes said...

Chuck - I don't think the 2012
election is in the bag.

I do believe that - however - more
than ever it will be about getting out the vote.

It seems to me that the sooner the Republicans choose their Candidate the better. I'm assuming it will be Mitt Romney. There is still a lot of time left and anything can happen.

Z said...

From your lips to God's ears, CHuck.
A billion dollars and charismatic charm, plus a media as in love with him as it's been, that's hard to beat. (tho I'm hearing the media's starting to wane...he might not be left ENOUGH)
Still, I have seen the stats like yours about the young; women are coming around; they say about the only group still enamored with him is the unions.
A LOT can happen between now and November......
I wonder how today's news that his administration is considering putting a terrorist with a horrible past out of jail and into the hands of the Taliban will play out. Even young voters would wonder about that.
Did you hear the stipulations...? basically it's "We'll let you go , but you have to PROMISE to be good!" UNREAL naivitee...that's scary and doesn't play well with most Americans. Not when we're playing nice/nice with admitted terrorists

Chuck said...

Sue, I think the GOP nomination is effectively over. Romney is it. No one else is going to mount a credible multi-state threat.

Z, many are doubting he will get to a billion. I think most people are starting to realize he is in over his head. My dad is a life long Dem and he is seeing it.

Z said...

Chuck, does your dad have a Rep. candidate he can stand? :-)

Always On Watch said...

It's going to be a close contest, I think.

---------------

Happy New Year, Chuck.

sue hanes said...

Chuck - If - and I believe we all pretty much agree on this - it comes down to Mitt Romney vs Barack Obama in the 2012 Presidential Election - what we will have is two basically nice guys sparring it out on the Front Line.


But beware of the Powers Behind The Throne -


and get out the vote

Alligator said...

"Race had a hand, he garnered a historically high proportion and turnout of the black vote."

Partially correct Chuck. A portion of the white vote was over guilt and they beleived that by electing a president "of color" it would finally bury the racial angst that has existed in this country. In fact I well remember Bill O'Reilly stating that in one of his talking points. I have not heard him explain why race relations under Obama-Holder have regressed instead of progressed.

"But beware of the Powers Behind The Throne -"

Absolutely Sue. It is no longer politics as usual. You have big money, the media, corporations and international players like George Soros manipulating and playing all kinds of games behind the scenes. I'm not calling it a conspiracy per se - the uber rich and powerful have always tried to control politics. What I am saying it has a reached a new level where the outcome of an election could be determined by far more than people casting ballots.

"A LOT can happen between now and November......"

For example Z, what is happening in the Straits of Hormuz and Obama's non-response to it. Where it ends up only time will tell.

Chuck, conservatives are so independent minded it is like trying to herd cats. I always laugh when I hear lib friends describe conservatives as "Republican robots marching in lockstep." Oh, if only that were so. Democrats would barely be able to get elected as dogcatchers.

sue hanes said...

Alligator - I can see that you are very smart.

You are the type of person that I would like to talk with.

You are much smarter than I am.

I'm glad I read your comment.

I don't suppose you'd be willing to reveal what works you have published?

: ]

Chuck said...

Z, actually he likes Ron Paul???

AOW, I think it will be close but I think the GOP takes it.

Sue, I can't disagree

Alligator, conservatives are hard to pin down. I think this is part of the reason there are more conservatives than libs. Also, very good point on the white guilt. I think a lot of people believe voting for a black President erased a lot of past sins. Not sure where that comes from.

sue hanes said...

Chuck - Happy New Year!

You really do think Right, don't you?

: )

Alligator said...

Sue, I don't think I'm that smart. I just read a lot from different sources and try to apply some Christian perspective or plain old common sense to what I read.

I try to keep my political views out of my professional life as the subjects I deal with are pretty apolitical. Keeps things clean and much easier when doing research.

You could find my stuff on Amazon and Barnes & Noble, but I haven't written anything on current political events. Not my forte' outside the blogs.

I don't know if there is a way for Chuck to mediate contact between us. I could tell you more in a PM.

sue hanes said...

Alligator - I'm so stupid I don't even know what a PM is. : ]

Anyway - It's the smart people that are always saying that they
are not smart - that's how you know they are smart.

What I liked about your comment is that I could understand you - and if people get too complicated then I lose the Thread.

sue hanes said...

But anyone who has ever read my blog knows exactly who I am.

I make no secret of that.

You ever read my Blog - Alligator?

Z said...

Chuck, he likes RON PAUL? Well, at least this is one Dem who might actually vote for a Republican if that's the case...I mean, Paul's so far out there and does share SOME opinions with the frontrunners, don't you think?

ALligator...I think the Hormuz situation is a dry forest with lightning about to strike, I really do.

Z said...

Alligator, what the heck IS that on your 'blog'? It's selling something, or....

Alligator said...

Sue thank you for your kind of words, but really I am just an average guy and I have the college grades to prove it.

PM is a "private message."

Anonymity - I just don't want any blow back on my employer, colleagues or professional contacts for voicing my opinions in places like this. By the way, my opinion and $4.75 will get you a small latte' at Starbucks.

Even though this is my own time and computer and not related to work, there are people out there that want to punish you professionally for speaking up, First Amendment rights be damned. That's just a reality in today's world. I can afford to be more open once I retire, which is getting closer.

"... I could understand you..."

Part of my job involves public contact. I meet people of all ages and academic levels, religious and political beliefs, different ethnic groups and occasionally even foreign nationals. I had to say everything through an interpreter with groups from Red China, Thailand and Russia. You eventually learn how to meet and talk to people at their level of understanding. I hope anyway.

No I have not read your blog, but I will. All the best in the New Year.

Alligator said...

By the way, I am sure that DHS, NSA, DOD, FBI, CIA and probably every other agency in the federal government knows the identity of everyone on the web, or can find out with minimal effort. Despite all the privacy disclaimers and court rulings, and usernames on the internet, our privacy is not all that private. That's the price of higher technology and rapid communications.

sue hanes said...

Gee - Well - Ok alligator.

With that I shall retire - for the evening, that is.

You sure know how to confuse a girl.


after while crocodile.



and happy new year to you too -


and to all of you big brother creeps listening in.

Alligator said...

Z - I don't know what the heck that is. I don't follow it.

"You sure know how to confuse a girl."

Even a simple communicator like me is capable of running long on the mouth from time to time :(

sue hanes said...

The thing is - Alligator.


You are like guy in Indiana Jones who fools around showing off but then Harrison Ford takes out a gun and shoots him dead.



Stop beating around the bush.


If you have something to say - do so.


Otherwise I'm movin' on.

cube said...

I'm hoping we haven't reached the tipping point where the free-stuff crowd overwhelms the work-for-a living crowd.